@VRubinObs πŸ”­ Today, #astronomers are aware of only about 40 percent πŸ“Š of potentially hazardous #asteroids β˜„οΈ - close-flying objects that are large enough to cause continent-wide destruction if they were to impact πŸ’₯ Earth. "The idea is, if there is an object like that, we want to find it while it’s maybe 40 or 50 years out, because that gives us enough time to figure out how we’re going to deflect it.” https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/this-revolutionary-new-observatory-will-locate-threatening-asteroids-and-millions-of-galaxies-180984514/

#Observatory#Astronomy#AsteroidThreat

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List of predicted πŸ”­ #asteroid β˜„οΈ impacts on Earth 🌏 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predicted_asteroid_impacts_on_Earth

#AsteroidThreat

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Only eight #asteroids β˜„οΈ have ever been detected before impact πŸ’₯ with #Earth’s atmosphere. The first of these discoveries took place in πŸ“† 2008, and four were detected in just the last two years https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_BX1_spotted_three_hours_before_impact

#Asteroid danger explained : "The main challenge stems from the population of middle-size objects, ranging from tens to hundreds of metres in diameter. There are a lot of these asteroids, and most have not been spotted yet." https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2018/06/Asteroid_danger_explained

#ESA#AsteroidThreat

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#2024BX1 is just the eighth #asteroid β˜„οΈ that humankind has spotted πŸ”­ before impact πŸ’₯ (3 hours ⏱️) https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_BX1_spotted_three_hours_before_impact
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"The bad news is #NASA estimates that it tracks only about 40 percent πŸ“Š of the #asteroids β˜„οΈ #large enough that they could cause calamity if they were to hit πŸ’₯ #Earth" https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/24/nasa-asteroid-telescope

#ESA : #Asteroid danger explained https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2018/06/Asteroid_danger_explained

#AsteroidThreat

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"Don’t panic, but an asteroid has a 1.9% chance of hitting Earth in 2032" by @arstechnica - The reason not to panic is astronomers are narrowing down a potentially threatening near-Earth #asteroid orbit with accumulating observations. The Earth occupies some small percent of the potential paths while the orbit remains uncertain. Historically, so far narrowing such orbits has eliminated Earth from the path. No guarantees. Monitor news. https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/thanks-to-nasa-you-probably-wont-have-to-worry-about-this-asteroid-killing-you/#2024YR4 #astronomy#LowFlyingRocks

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"Incoming Asteroid" by XKCD comic (mirror bots @xkcd @xkcdbot ) - The smaller the asteroid/meteoroid, the more common it is. There are literally tons of incoming small meteors every day. The bigger they get, fortunately the less common. https://xkcd.com/3049/ #asteroid #astronomy#LowFlyingRocks#2024YR4
XKCD Comic #3049 "Incoming Asteroid" https://xkcd.com/3049/

explanation from ExplainXKCD https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/3049:_Incoming_Asteroid

This comic may be inspired by the recent discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to have about a 2% chance of striking earth in 2032. Its size is estimated to be 40-90 meters (bad news for the area around the city).

This comic provides a log scale correlating the size of any incoming asteroid to whether its arrival is good or bad news. While asteroids on the smaller end of the scale are good news for sky watchers, as the upcoming objects get bigger the potential for catastrophe grows. Many astronomy enthusiasts would be happy to see bigger meteors, as bigger generally means more exciting pictures. Of course, once the meteors grow past a certain size even the most enthusiast astronomer might grow concerned about their imminent extinction...

The joke in the last line is that once an asteroid grows past a certain size, it is less of a question of the object hitting earth and more a question of earth hitting a bigger planet. Ouch.
XKCD Comic #3049 "Incoming Asteroid" https://xkcd.com/3049/ explanation from ExplainXKCD https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/3049:_Incoming_Asteroid This comic may be inspired by the recent discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to have about a 2% chance of striking earth in 2032. Its size is estimated to be 40-90 meters (bad news for the area around the city). This comic provides a log scale correlating the size of any incoming asteroid to whether its arrival is good or bad news. While asteroids on the smaller end of the scale are good news for sky watchers, as the upcoming objects get bigger the potential for catastrophe grows. Many astronomy enthusiasts would be happy to see bigger meteors, as bigger generally means more exciting pictures. Of course, once the meteors grow past a certain size even the most enthusiast astronomer might grow concerned about their imminent extinction... The joke in the last line is that once an asteroid grows past a certain size, it is less of a question of the object hitting earth and more a question of earth hitting a bigger planet. Ouch.

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πŸ“† 2025 preview :

β€’ #Moon πŸŒ™ deliveries by #Astrobotic, #IntuitiveMachines and #Firefly Aerospace.
β€’ #SPHEREx will create a map of the universe 🌌
β€’ #ESA's πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί #SpaceRider #spaceplane orbital test flight
β€’ #Japan's πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ lunar lander and micro-rover
β€’ #Tianwen2 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ collects samples from a #NEA β˜„οΈ
β€’ #BepiColombo at #Mercury
β€’ #EuropaClipper at #Mars
β€’ #NASA’s #Lucy #asteroid flyby
β€’ #JUICE at #Venus
https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/space-missions-coming-in-2025

β€’ #SierraSpace#DreamChaser test mission to the #ISShttps://www.planetary.org/articles/calendar-of-space-events-2025

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Nothing to see here ... but we have a 50-meter #asteroid right now with a probability of 1:83 to #impact Earth in 2032 and cause an explosion with an energy comparable to the #Tunguska event: watch the page https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4 for the evolving assessment; when future astrometry eventually rules out an impact (as is the typical outcome of such cases) it will simply vanish.

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"Astronomers just deleted an asteroid because it turned out to be [he who shall not be named]’s Tesla Roadster" by Astronomy Magazine (apparently inactive acct @astronomymag if you know them, bug them to reactivate) - #Asteroid#2018CN41 was "discovered" and then deleted because it's a car. The car was used as a dummy weight for the initial demonstration launch of Falcon Heavy in 2018. https://www.astronomy.com/science/astronomers-just-deleted-an-asteroid-because-it-turned-out-to-be-elon-musks-tesla-roadster/ #astronomy #traffic#LowFlyingRocks#LowFlyingCars